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Comments are now enabled Saturday, 13 March, 2010
We have had a busy day in Askam today which was even better given the nice weather. I started off when my wife and I joined Dalton Councillors, Jill Heath, Kath Unwin and Bill Bleasdale, as well as other Barrow Councillors at the opening of the refurbished Community Centre. The Dalton team have been the real driving force behind this, negotiating a deal with Barrow Borough Council and getting the building refurbished. The contractors have done a great job and Askam now has a Community Centre hopefully for many years to come. We spent the afternoon canvassing around Dalton and the response was very favourable. I guess my highlight was meeting a shipyard worker who told me about the delays already happening and who said anyone who claims the timetable set out in 2006 will be met is ‘living in cloud cuckoo land’, he accepted that my argument that we just don’t know the extent to which Labour have delayed the successor programme and he said we would have to sort it out, but he had more faith in the Tories than ’this lot’.
We’re having tomorrow off for Mothers Day, so I hope all Mums have a nice day tomorrow.
Thursday, 11 March, 2010
Some of the canvassing answers you get that I find ‘strange’ to say the least.
Only in a democracy do people say this, in some parts of the world people will travel for days or queue for hours to vote, but in the UK every now and again you get answers like this, very sad to those of us who believe in democracy.
Wednesday, 10 March, 2010
I visited St Marys Hospice today and was impressed by the dedication of the staff and their positive attitude. As with so many of organisations of this type they desperately want some stability in funding and worry that as the belt is tightened they will lose out. I think, given our support for the third sector they will see their role expand under a Conservative Government rather than decline. Following this I joined many others for the official ‘ribbon cutting’ on the Walney Offshore Windfarm. This will see some 102 wind turbines, delivered in 2 stages, erected out to sea from the coast of Walney producing electricity. Like many I am sceptical of some of the claims made by wind power proponents, but I do believe that they have a role to play in diversifying our energy suppliers so I am fully supportive of this important project and look forward to the fierst electricity joining the national grid on 1st October .
Tuesday, 09 March, 2010
I have been ill with cold since Sunday and only today have emerged from my sick bed. Why is it that the minute you finish working really hard, for example I have just finished my latest contract to allow me to concentrate on the campaign, and therefore logically you should have more time, you fall ill? It seems to me to be one of life’s great mysteries that this should happen and it also seems bloody unfair, that the first day off you have for a while and you spend it coughing, spluttering and going to bed early.
Sunday, 07 March, 2010
I have been busy clearing the decks and finishing off the contract I have been working on. I have spent many years working as a Contract Accountant and in my time I have worked in both the private and public sectors. In most cases I have found the staff I have worked with to be dedicated, hard working and just want to be left alone and do their job. The most recent contract I have just finished was no exception and in a way I was sad for the contract to end. However, the election is upon us, probably only 8 weeks away so it’s time to focus fully on that.
Tuesday, 02 March, 2010
Being a bit of a ship nut, in case you hadn’t noticed, I came across this superb story that sets out yet again the inherent flexibility of Aircraft Carriers (for more detailed assessments of the value of carriers see the blog on 30th April and 6th August 2009). It is the reported reply of a US Navy Admiral to a foreign admiral on the news that the US Navy was going to send a carrier to join the rescue efforts in Haiti.
The foreign admiral asked “What are you going to do – bomb them?”
The reply from the US Admiral was:
“Our carriers have three hospitals on board that can treat several hundred people; they are nuclear powered and can supply emergency electrical power to shore facilities; they have three cafeterias with the capacity to feed 3,000 people three meals a day; they can produce several thousand gallons of fresh water from sea water each day, and they carry half a dozen helicopters for use in transporting victims and injured to and from their flight deck. We have eleven such ships; how many do you have?”
I couldn’t have put it better myself, carriers are not cold war relics they are incredibly flexible platforms with a variety of uses.
On the back of the latest opinion polls the markets are letting us know what they think of a hung parliament. Sterling fell through the psychologically important €0.90 cents to the pound level yesterday and it was also sinking against the dollar. Even scarier was the fact that the Gilt market opened down as well. The market has already removed the Triple-A rating on UK government debt.
Remember there was a time last year when the money nearly stopped coming out of the hole in the wall machine. It still is because we are borrowing so much of it, and in order to lend markets need to have confidence. If they lose confidence then they may stop lending and then we are in a very sticky situation indeed.
Monday, 01 March, 2010
Copy of letter sent to the Evening Mail today. Dear Sir, I refer to the letter by Colin Thomson published in the Evening mail on 27th February 2010.
When I asked the question to Mr. Woodcock on when he expected the build of the Trident Successor boats to commence I had hoped that he would actually provide the date himself, and it was the fact he didn’t that I found most interesting. The original timetable was always seen as challenging and this was clearly stated in the NAO Report: ‘The UK Future Nuclear Deterrent Capability’ published in November 2008. It said that the design of the submarines needed to pass their ‘Initial Main Gate’ in September 2009 in order to meet the very tight build timetable. This deadline was missed and the project is therefore now delayed by however long it takes to get the designs through this gate.
In addition, the Astute programme has been delayed by a total of 4.5 years (9 months per boat for boats 2-7). This was published on 16th December 2009 in the ‘NAO Report: ‘Defence Major Projects HC 85I- 2009/10’.
The honest facts are that because the Astute and the Trident Successor programmes are both already delayed by this Government, it is nothing more than untruthful scare mongering to claim the Tories will delay it by five years.
Honesty and facts are what matter, not spin, deceit and silly grandstanding by the Labour party who claim we will delay, whilst ignoring the fact that it is they who are already delaying these projects.
Yours faithfully
John Gough
Friday, 26 February, 2010
Before anyone gets over excited by the news that the UK growth rate for the last quarter of 2009 has been revised from 0.1% to 0.3%, take a look at the equivalent US figures for the period.
The US has revised the growth rate of US GDP for Quarter 4, 2009 to 5.9%, up from its initial reading of 5.7%.
We were not best placed for the recession, and we certainly are not leading the world out of recession, this is Labour’s toxic legacy.
Thursday, 25 February, 2010
George Osborne made a very interesting speech last night on economic policy. You may not agree with his arguments but it clearly set out and, to my knowledge, the only speech that has mentioned ‘theory of Ricardian equivalence’ which will send a shiver of excitement down every economist’s spine. You can read the full speech here:
http://www.conservatives.com/News/Speeches/2010/02/George_Osborne_Mais_Lecture_-_A_New_Economic_Model.aspx
The Authentic Voice of Socialism (part 6)
Meanwhile, never one for the discussing important subjects, such as just how did the UK get into it’s current predicament and more importantly how do we get out of it, the Daily Mirror has been busy digging up dirt on David Cameron.
Once again displaying the nasty streak than runs through crappy socialist rags like this, it proclaims ‘Dave the Dunce’ and then proceeds to mock him because apparently he wasn’t top at school. Of course it would be beyond the wit of the Mirror to realise that the Left are supposed to support people in this situation and congratulate them when they get over problems such as this, or does that only apply to those, in it’s infinite wisdom, the Mirror deems fit to be worthy. So much for the concepts of respect and equality to all people regardless of background, which the Left likes to proclaim is one of its progressive values.
I have two words on this story for the Daily Mirror……..so what!
I dislike this despicable rag so much, mainly because they faked pictures of British soldiers abusing prisoners that I will not darken my website with a link to this story but I am sure you can find it on their website.
Wednesday, 24 February, 2010
You may have noticed that I have not blogged this week, this is because at 2pm on Monday my Uncle Jack died, he was 79 years old. He wasn’t actually a real uncle, just my dad’s oldest friend from his Navy days. They met on the day they joined up in 1949 and were demobbed on the same day. They never actually served together, my Dad was in the Atlantic fleet and Uncle Jack went to the Far East fleet. My Dad was fond of telling a story about how he used Uncle Jack’s hat as an ashtray on the train as they travelled home after leaving the Navy.
I have many fond memories of him, he loved to debate and was a solid traditional Labour man, and I spent my teenage years arguing with him. When I last saw him, about 4-5 weeks ago he was his usual self, argumentative, funny and full of life
He was my first character reference when I applied for a job and he most recently performed this duty when he was a referee for me applying to join the Conservative Party candidate list.
I will miss him and one of my life’s constants has gone.
Anyway, this explains why I haven’t been blogging this week.
Sunday, 21 February, 2010
The recession officially, according to the usual way of measuring them, came to an end a few weeks ago when the ONS posted that the economy had grown by 0.1% in the last quarter of 2009 so this seemed to be a relevant time to post some comments on the experience. The facts are that this was the longest and deepest recession since before the war. GDP fell by some 5-6% over the last 18 months and Britain was the first in and last out of the major economies. It was triggered by the credit crunch when a number of banks got into difficulties over their lending. As banks could not collect what was due to them, they stopped lending to each other, and like a virus the credit crunch spread around the worldwide banking system.
Government stepped in to save the banks and try to restore some stability and start lending again. What started as a monetary phenomenon as cash flowing around the system froze up turned into a full blooded recession as businesses and individuals couldn’t get finance. Further monetary measures were taken with the reduction in interest rates to all time lows as various Governments tried to kick start lending and spending.
Some Governments, ours included, went further and seeing the fall in demand responded in the time honoured Keynesian fashion and attempted to boost demand with fiscal measures. The UK Government cut VAT by 2.5% and introduced various schemes such as the car scrappage scheme to boost spending. When it was apparent that lending was still not growing the UK Government started the process of Quantitative Easing (QE), or printing money, and in total some £200bn has been pumped into the system this way.
So what has all this action achieved?
Well, the UK Government will claim things would be much worse if they had not taken this action or if they had taken a different course of action. However given that, unemployment has continued to rise (though not as much as originally expected for reasons I will explain below), lending is still not happening, the economy only grew by an anaemic 0.1% and sales figures since Christmas suggest we may slip back into recession I am sceptical that of what has been achieved, and I think it is unproven that the measures have significantly changed the course of the recession.
The consequences of these actions will be with us for many years in the form of huge debts. The UK is in debt to the tune of some £1.5 Trillion and this year alone the UK will borrow £178bn or 12% of GDP. To put that in perspective Greece has a deficit of only 13%. It is no surprise that the markets see the UK as a risk and it is probably only the possibility of a change in Government that is keeping the markets from panicking. All of this debt incurs interest payments and from next year we will spend more on these than on education or defence for example.
The unprecedented monetary expansion carried out has also let the genie of inflation back into the system. Inflation has been rising for some months now and topped 3.5% last month. Monetarist economists will not be surprised by this given the expansion in the money supply that happened under QE. We don’t really know just what the full effect of this policy will be but it certainly has not boosted lending and the risk is that as more normal lending patterns return then inflation will take off.
Unemployment has risen but no where near the doomsday scenarios that were forecast at the beginning of the recession. However if you look closely at the latest figures there are some interesting things happening. The headline figure has not risen as fast as expected, yes, but this is largely due to an increase in part time working or a reduction in hours. There has been a huge rise in underemployment, the difference between the hours people want to work and what they can work. This actually shows just how flexible our economy is that it has reacted in this way; but is this consequence of Government action, or of the inherent flexibility of the market built up over many years before Labour? Meanwhile the rate of long term joblessness has increased and a record 8.1m people are on out of work benefits.
Also, another example of this has been the rise in exports with fall all in the value for the pound. I think this also shows just how fundamentally strong the UK economy is in that it is able to react to a more favourable exchange rate. Once again I would argue this has nothing to do with Government policy but is a consequence of the hard fought reforms of the previous Conservative Government.
So we are left with huge debts that need financing, inflation is back, unemployment is high, growth is sluggish and we have zombie banks still not lending with the potential bed debts now the responsibility of the taxpayer.
To tackle the debts you usually cut spending and/or raise taxes, to boost growth you usually cut taxes, keep interest rates and the exchange rate low, but to tackle inflation you need higher interest rates, lower spending and monetary growth (which will bring upward pressure on the exchange rate). This is the course to be navigated by our economy over the next few years.
The economic consequences of Mr Brown will be with us for many years to come.
It seems John Redwood is thinking along similar lines: http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2010/02/21/this-government-has-not-seen-us-through-the-recession/
Saturday, 20 February, 2010
I’m just in from a busy Saturday with a fund raiser and plenty of canvassing in the villages and Walney. I had a fascinating conversation with a person who described themselves as a Socialist. Now normally I say have a nice day and leave them to it but I was curious why this person was a Socialist so I asked them why and these are a few of the bits of the conversation I remember:
Them: I remember the Tories; they nearly closed down the yard.
Me: Rubbish, actually it was the end of the Cold War, and what happens at the end of wars is the guys building weapons lose their jobs. I don’t remember anyone saying we should just keep building submarines at the rate we had in the 1980’s, was Labour saying keep building submarines at the time?
Them: No, but the Tories never supported the yard in the first place
Me: Oh come on, do you know how many orders were placed by the Conservatives from 79 to 97, and how many by Labour.
Them: I don’t but no doubt you have all the facts and figures.
Me: I do, it was eighteen from 79 to 97 and one under Labour from 97, just one.
Them: Well that was replacing the Falklands War ships lost because of a war she started.
Me: Actually it wasn’t, all the replacement ships from the Falklands War were built by other yards, not Barrow (NOTE: 2 x Destroyers and 2 x Frigates were lost in the Falklands, they were replaced by T22 Frigates).
Them: Well, what about education, I am in education and I remember how bad it was. Labour have improved it
Me: So what do you think of the Sutton Trust report last week that showed that the poorest kids are nearly a year behind with reading when they go to school, or the fact that 20% of kids still leave school being unable to read and write properly?
Them: Well it’s not surprising they can’t read properly, it’s about money, and they haven’t got enough money
Me: Do you really believe in this day and age people can’t afford to buy books, they could use a library and you get free books sent to you?
Them: Well, all the Libraries are being closed down.
Me: and who is in power shutting them?
Them: erm, well it would be worse if you lot get in, I hope you don’t win.
Me: Well, that’s an interesting thought and time for me to head off.
Honestly, it was like talking to a brick wall. Facts which don’t fit into the lazy ‘Labour are nice’ and ‘Tories are bad’ world are just ignored and statements of opinion are said as facts. Uncomfortable truths like the fact our schools still fail 20% of kids, despite the money being spent, are blamed on the fact not enough money is being spent.
Now I don’t mind if someone is a real Socialist and argues from a point of principle but to mark your vote based on such lazy sound bites of what the Tories stand for, strikes me as, well, just plain stupid. Still that’s democracy, and you can vote for who you want and for whatever reason you want.
Anyway, if the person who this was reads this, thanks for the chat, I enjoyed it immensely, even if I felt it was a bit like banging my head against a brick wall.
Friday, 19 February, 2010
Yet more bad news on the public finances front. January, typically a month when tax receipts exceed public sector payments, due to the tax self assessment deadline, has actually seen borrowing of £4.3bn. The consensus among economists was that they were forecasting a surplus of around £2.6bn. Especially worrying is to see analysts bracketing Britain in with countries like Greece.
Thursday, 18 February, 2010
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